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The United States Commerce Department recently announced its intent to withdraw from the 2019 agreement suspending the antidumping investigation on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico, a decision that will take effect in July. The move will replace the current deal鈥攚hich established minimum pricing for imports鈥攚ith a 20.91% duty imposed on most Mexican tomato shipments.

Nogales, Ariz. is one of the country鈥檚 leading entry points for fresh tomato imports. 

U.S. officials argue that termination is necessary to protect domestic tomato growers, but the decision threatens to disrupt a longstanding trade structure that has provided American consumers with an affordable supply of fresh tomatoes year-round.

Arizona Gov. Katie and Hobbs and the Arizona-Mexico Commission say the tariffs will harm U.S. consumers.

鈥淐onsumers may see prices spike as much as 50%, with Arizona losing up to $3 billion, if the U.S. Department of Commerce imposes tariffs on Mexican tomatoes,鈥� the AMC in a statement.

With Mexico鈥檚 favorable climate and lower production costs, growers there are able to meet consistent year-round demand鈥攁 role that most U.S. producers are unable to match due to the climate. The removal of the agreement and the imposition of steep tariffs is expected to lead to higher prices, a cost that will likely be borne by American consumers.

Without the suspension agreement, there will no longer be a set minimum price for the imports, leading to greater instability in U.S. market prices. Because tomatoes are perishable and seasonal their pricing is especially volatile.

If no new agreement is reached before the July deadline, shoppers will face the fallout. Though the tariffs may benefit tomato growers in states like Florida, they risk sparking consumer backlash as inflation-weary households contend with rising food costs.

In a statement, the Nogales-based Fresh Produce Association of the Americas said, 鈥淢embers of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas are U.S. companies that have led innovation in the tomato category over the last 30 years. Because of this innovation, consumers now can shop for a wide array of vine-ripened grape and cherry tomatoes, tomatoes on the vine, roma tomatoes, and other specialty tomatoes.  With the pending termination of the Tomato Suspension Agreement and implementation of duties, those same U.S. companies are left to wonder if they can continue to supply consumers with the vine-ripened tomatoes people demand at affordable prices.鈥�

FPAA President Lance Jungmeyer that consumers will bear the brunt of any new tariffs.

鈥淭his price has to be passed on,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t can鈥檛 be charged back to the grower or anything. A lot of companies that have year-round contracts are going to be renegotiating those in order to make sure they can fill those contracts. As a result, retailers are going to have to raise prices. Restaurants are going to have to raise prices or adjust menu output, for example, by putting fewer tomatoes on a salad or fewer slices on a sandwich.鈥�

The U.S. is Mexico鈥檚 top agricultural trade partner, exporting $18 billion worth of products, which represents about 70 percent of Mexico鈥檚 agri-food imports. The agriculture sector is critical to the overall two-way goods and services trade between our two countries that supports an estimated five million U.S. jobs.

The 2019 agreement was designed to ensure free trade between the nations while keeping supply chains consistent. Its termination, framed by the Commerce Department as a protective measure, could disrupt a vital agricultural agreement and further inflation.